Forest Degradation in Tajikistan: Causes and climatic Effects, Proposals for Reforestation (summary of analytical review)
I.A. Zagrebelnyy
Long-term studies show that the occurrence of more and more intensive extreme climatic situations, and, in particular aridization of the region, is the result of bringing, during past decades the mass of the forests to the point when they can no longer quantitatively contribute to interception of moisture-laden air flows of oceanic origin. The above destabilizes the spatiotemporal characteristics of previously established, dynamically more stable, climatic processes. The critical forest mass is not enough for that (the proposed term means the total area, density and physiological, especially humidity-regulating and photosynthetic activity of trees and shrubs: edificators and accompanying vegetation).
In the opinion of the author, Tajikistan will loose its unique water reserves within a very short, historical period of time and water shortage will be not only for cross-border flows, but also for domestic use. Severe problems of inter-state conflicts concerning distribution of cross-border flow of Pamir-Alai rivers will arise.
The increasing aridization will trigger further desiccation of Central Asian territories, as the Pamir-Alai region, along with neighboring mountain systems (Karakoram, Tien Shan, Hindu Kush) is one of the most important centers of global climate formation (high-altitude climate formation pole).
A similar, possibly more complicated mechanism (where concerns the ecosystem) of increasingly accelerating negative climate changes will inevitably affect the other regions of the planet.
The present paper proposes practical measures to remedy the situation, improving the use and adaptation of new technological developments for reforestation, as well as suggests some preventive measures which can be generally applied in similar climatic situations in other regions.

Деградация лесов в Таджикистане: причины и климатические следствия,
предложения по восстановлению (резюме аналитического обзора)
И. А. Загребельный
Многолетние исследования, проведенные на территории регио¬нов, облесенных еще полстолетия назад, показывают, что все более усиливающиеся чрезвычайные климатические ситуации, и в особен¬ности аридизация региона, – это результат сведения за последние десятилетия лесов до состояния, когда они количественно уже не могут положительно влиять на перехват влагонесущих потоков ат¬мосферного воздуха океанического происхождения. Это дестабили¬зирует пространственно-временные характеристики ранее сложив¬шихся динамически более устойчивых климатических процессов. Для их стабилизации не хватает критической массы леса (под предложенным термином понимается общая площадь, плотность и физиологичес¬кая, особенно влагорегулирующая и фотосинтезирующая актив¬ность древесно-кустарниковой растительности – эдификаторной и сопутствующей).
Само по себе антропогенное, все более неумеренное и хищное истребление лесов является самодостаточной причиной дестабилизации влажностно-термического режима и пространствен¬но-временн&

Forest DegradationinTajikistan:CausesandCLIMATIC Effects, Proposalsfor Reforestation(summary ofanalyticalreview)
I.A. Zagrebelnyy
The review is written based on the materials of the National Seminar "Key Reasons of Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Tajikistan" held in Dushanbe on October 22-23, 2008, as well as on literature data analysis of above problems and on the author’s long-term investigations in the field of rational use of agro-climatic resources. Many factors (global climate change, negative impact of extensive use of natural resources, socio-economical factors, etc.) are being considered in this paper.
It has been found that the volume of the climatic, microclimatic and agricultural information contained in the available publications, mass communications and other sources of data used by local analysts is not sufficient to identify the dominant reasons, (by their priority - from more to less important) and to develop measures for rational use of all the variety of agro-climatic resources of Tajikistan. The opinion of absolute majority of the data sources that convey information to users about the current climate changes in the region and worldwide is borrowed from the world media and depicts the global climate change (GCC) as the main cause. In such a case, other alternative reasons of climatic and environmental changes of negative character are neglected and are treated as collateral ones. The GCC is perceived as a force majeure which can not be resisted, and to which you can just adapt with the help of unilateral forecasts. Having regard to the materials of the author’s own investigations in plant ecology, microclimate, phyto-indication and historical research, it would be wrong to unambiguously admit that GCC is the dominant reason of the climate changes observed during recent decades. Moreover, it would be premature to deny the possibility of a change, in a short period of time, of the climate change vector since it would not be sufficiently justified from the point of view of the disciplines that are directly or indirectly related to explanation of the climate processes.
Long-term studies show that the occurrence of more and more intensive extreme climatic situations, and, in particular aridization of 258
the region, is the result of bringing, during past decades the mass of the forests to the point when they can no longer quantitatively contribute to interception of moisture-laden air flows of oceanic origin. The above destabilizes the spatiotemporal characteristics of previously established, dynamically more stable, climatic processes. The critical forest mass is not enough for that (the proposed term means the total area, density and physiological, especially humidity-regulating and photosynthetic activity of trees and shrubs: edificators and accompanying vegetation).
The local analysts in Tajikistan consider the high rate of extraction of trees and shrubs to be the main cause of climate change, leading to more frequent occurrence of extreme climatic situations. However, the author’s observations show that the underlying cause of aridization and desertification of the region and neighborhood, as well as the increased drought, mudflow and avalanche danger, and other extreme climatic situations is the result not so much of cutting-out the trees and shrubs, as of still growing overgrazing in the territory of forests and woodlands. Permanent excessive grazing without pasture rotation and technological measures to restore the productivity of biocenoses, completely denies the possibility of natural regeneration of trees and shrubs.
Man-induced, increasingly unbridled and predator-like deforestation is in itself a sufficient cause of destabilization of humid-thermal regime and space-temporal changes in circulation and physical and chemical state of atmospheric transfer in the region, and presumably- worldwide. That means that the above reason is sufficient enough to explain the increase in the current negative changes of the climate in Pamir-Alai region, without taking the GCC as an absolute reason. Still we must admit that the above changes are taking place against the background of the so-called global warming processes.
In the opinion of the author, Tajikistan will loose its unique water reserves within a very short, historical period of time and water shortage will be not only for cross-border flows, but also for domestic use. Severe problems of inter-state conflicts concerning distribution of cross-border flow of Pamir-Alai rivers will arise. The increasing aridization will trigger further desiccation of Central Asian territories, as the Pamir-Alai region, along with neighboring mountain systems (Karakoram, Tien Shan, Hindu Kush) is one of the most important centers of global climate formation (high-altitude climate formation pole).259
A similar, possibly more complicated mechanism (where concerns the ecosystem) of increasingly accelerating negative climate changes will inevitably affect the other regions of the planet.
The present paper proposes practical measures to remedy the situation, improving the use and adaptation of new technological developments for reforestation, as well as suggests some preventive measures which can be generally applied in similar climatic situations in other regions.

Загребельный Иван Александрович ( Таджикистан. Душанбе) . Моб. тел +992918161429